Bubble Tracker

Imbalances can develop when parts of the economy move out of step. Asset prices may rise much faster than earnings, or borrowing may become unusually large relative to economic activity. This dashboard tracks those relationships alongside indicators of financial stress and recession. Unusual readings can persist and do not necessarily lead to a crisis.

Not every indicator here measures an imbalance. They fall into three groups:

• Potential imbalances, such as stock valuations that are high relative to earnings, or credit that has grown unusually fast relative to GDP.
• Financial stress, such as an elevated excess bond premium in the corporate bond market.
• Recession conditions, such as rising unemployment or an inverted yield curve.

Inflation, gold prices and foreign holdings of Treasuries add context rather than measuring any of these directly.